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predictive modeling

Too “Logit” To Quit: 5 Ideas For Using Logistic Regression In Your Business

Submitted by Jonathon Neil on Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:53

Predicting behavior is the “white whale” of every business leader responsible for business development and customer acquisition. The field of data analysis offers numerous techniques and methods to help business leaders in these efforts, yet for those without the experience and/or resources this can be a daunting task. In this article I want to discuss one technique that can support the efforts of any business, small and large: logistic regression.

A Predictive Model For Week 5 College Football Pickems

Submitted by Jonathon Neil on Thu, 09/27/2012 - 16:39

The saga continues with my College Football pick ems. With week 4 in the books and week 5 approaching I have improved from dead last to fifth in the rankings over the past 2 weeks. A couple of weeks ago in an attempt to climb out of the cellar I conducted a quick exploratory analysis and used some probabilities to make predictions, resulting in correctly picking 55% of the games in week 3.

Update: College Football Pickems Decision Model

Submitted by Jonathon Neil on Sat, 09/22/2012 - 10:00

In a post last week I discussed my problem with picking college football games against the spread. After stating the problem (I was dead last in the standings) I walked through a very basic exploratory and statistical analysis by using probabilities from the first 2 weeks to develop a decision-making model for selecting my picks. And the results were...

Surprisingly good

As a recap, here is the model:

Exploratory Analysis Of My College Football Pickems

Submitted by Jonathon Neil on Sat, 09/15/2012 - 14:00

It’s week 3 for College Football, which means another ego-crushing round of College Football Pickems. The first couple of weeks have not been too kind to me. Week 1 wasn’t too bad, but due to procrastination in week 2 I missed several picks for the earlier games. Now I enter week 3 tied for last in the standings. With two weeks worth of data at my disposal and bragging rights on the line, I think it is time for a little analysis to see if I can improve my performance.

Improve Analysis Within Your Business By Using Statistics

Submitted by Jonathon Neil on Wed, 09/12/2012 - 18:15

Most business leaders have encountered statistics at some point in their careers, but I suspect for many this was in their undergraduate coursework and they never really looked back. The implication of this is that many businesses do not actively use statistics in their decision-making framework. I think there are two reasons for this. First, they may be interested in applying statistics but the cost is prohibitive. SAS and SPSS are expensive packages for small and medium sized businesses.

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